A new statewide testing system for Michigan’s
public school students appears to be in the works, but superintendents
are expressing some concern.
The system would be aligned with the Common Core standards for math and reading that the legislature approved last year.
The
state Department of Education has contracts ready to implement
something called the Smarter Balanced assessment system, but the fact
that it would be new to students is worrying some school officials.
Among
companies that have testing materials available, Smarter Balanced has
been endorsed by the Michigan Assessment Consortium as most appropriate
for the state. The Education Trust-Midwest, a statewide education
research, information and advocacy organization also has endorsed
Smarter Balanced.
A statement issued by superintendents
from Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties said that while Smarter Balanced
meets a number of desirable criteria, “it is unclear whether or not
Michigan has done sufficient field testing to assure accurate and
adequate implementation of this new assessment system. Also, there are
parts of the system still under development. We recommend due diligence
on the state’s part before implementing and then using this new
assessment system for accountability purposes.”
“I don’t have the
confidence it’s going to be done right. Too much emphasis is put on one
assessment,” said Riverview Superintendent Russell Pickell, echoing the
formal statement by the superintendents.
“We believe a statewide
assessment applied to every student in every grade needs to be carried
out ONLY because it is required by the federal government in order to
receive federal funds,” the superintendents said. “If not for that, we
would not support a single statewide test given every year to every
student for accountability purposes. If federal rules allowed, we
believe that the state could accurately inform itself as to the progress
of students on the standards via state-developed benchmark testing
which could be done at three grade levels (such as 4,7,10) with a random
sample of students.”
Pickell also questioned “the amount of time
these tests take.” He said the state is being rushed into the new
system because of deadlines.
He worries about how the test
results will be used, and pointed out that it is so technology dependent
— i.e., can only be taken online — some scores “may have nothing to do
with achievement.”
The first time the test is used it can do nothing more than establish a baseline, Pickell said.
Wyandotte School Superintendent
Carla Harting also indicated support for the concerns raised in the
statement by the superintendents from the three counties.
The superintendents from the three counties acknowledged they appear to have no choice.
Earlier
this month, officials from the Education Trust-Midwest addressed the
legislature to voice support of the state’s plans to implement the new
college- and career-ready state assessment system.
“Michigan’s
new assessment system will provide us a powerful driver to transform our
public schools’ teaching and learning — and ensure all of our students
are college- and career-ready for today’s globally competitive knowledge
economy,” said Amber Arellano, executive director of ETM.
However,
ETM cautioned against state leaders allocating budget money to be used
to support one state assessment for educator evaluations and to measure
student performance, and another to measure student growth for school
accountability purposes.
“Such a move would result in unnecessary
additional testing time for students, and unnecessary and significant
additional costs for the state to bear,” Arellano said.
“Our
state’s planned new assessment system will generate far more reliable,
helpful student growth data than Michigan has ever had,” said Sarah
Lenhoff, director of policy and research for ETM. “These rich new data
will help educators and schools tailor interventions and learning
strategies for students, even in their K-3 years. If developed and
funded appropriately, we will have such a system in place by spring of
2015.”
“This is a game-changer for our state,” Arellano said.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Michigan tax relief certain, but what form will it take?
That some Michigan residents will be getting a
tax cut is virtually certain. The form it takes is very much up in the
air, however, despite Gov. Rick Snyder’s support for a partial
restoration of the Homestead Property Tax Credit.
Many Republicans are not happy with Snyder’s proposal, which would permanently raise the income cutoff for the Homestead Property Tax Credit to $60,000, still short of the $82,650 threshold that existed before the governor took office in 2011.
Snyder felt that tax relief should be targeted for lower- and middle-income families. His proposal would mean an estimated 1.3 million taxpayers would pay $103 million less in taxes in year one, equaling about $79 per filing, according to an Associated Press report.
State Rep. Patrick Somerville (R-Huron Twp.) indicated he would favor something that is broader based. He worries about “further complicating the tax code.”
Somerville instead favors a plan that would reduce the income tax from its current 4.25 percent to 4.15 percent on Oct. 1; to 4.05 percent in October of next year; and possibly to 3.95 percent the year after if the state has a surplus of $300 million or more at the time.
Pension tax relief also might be in order, he said.
Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton) said his first concern is the condition of Michigan’s roads, but he concedes there may be room for tax reduction. Colbeck, whose district includes eight communities in the southern portion of Downriver, said he likes “the idea of reducing property taxes,” and he also thinks that “promoting charities is a good way to help the poor.”
To that end, he indicated he would support an increase in the limit for charitable tax deductions. Colbeck feels the private sector is more effective in helping the underprivileged than the public sector.
Democratic lawmakers questioned for this colum did not respond, but Rep. Andrew Kandrevas of Southgate last year endorsed a Democratic plan to restore tax credits and deductions to middle-class families and repeal new taxes on retirees.
In a statement on his website, State Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) said “the governor’s incomplete restoration of the Homestead Property Tax Credit pales in comparison to the thousands of dollars in additional taxes he has placed on Michigan families, and his budget continues to rely on taxes on retirement income and the elimination of the child deduction and the reduction of the Earned Income Tax Credit.
“The proposed increased income threshold to qualify for the Homestead Property Tax Credit remains far below what it was before it was slashed by the governor earlier in his term, leaving thousands of middle class families unable to qualify for it and paying higher taxes as a result.”
Democrats have been consistent in their criticism of the governor and the legislature for raising taxes on individuals while cutting them on businesses in 2011.
Colbeck said it is certainly nice to be talking about a $1 billion surplus as opposed to the $1.5 billion deficit that faced lawmakers and Snyder in 2011.
“It’s tough to say what will pass,” Somerville said. It could be a “combination of everything.” He called the situation a “moving puzzle,” but said there should be enough in the surplus to provide significant tax relief, increase funding for roads and schools and set aside a rainy day fund in the range of $750 million.
There’s still time for taxpayers to weigh in. They should email their state representatives and senators.
Many Republicans are not happy with Snyder’s proposal, which would permanently raise the income cutoff for the Homestead Property Tax Credit to $60,000, still short of the $82,650 threshold that existed before the governor took office in 2011.
Snyder felt that tax relief should be targeted for lower- and middle-income families. His proposal would mean an estimated 1.3 million taxpayers would pay $103 million less in taxes in year one, equaling about $79 per filing, according to an Associated Press report.
State Rep. Patrick Somerville (R-Huron Twp.) indicated he would favor something that is broader based. He worries about “further complicating the tax code.”
Somerville instead favors a plan that would reduce the income tax from its current 4.25 percent to 4.15 percent on Oct. 1; to 4.05 percent in October of next year; and possibly to 3.95 percent the year after if the state has a surplus of $300 million or more at the time.
Pension tax relief also might be in order, he said.
Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton) said his first concern is the condition of Michigan’s roads, but he concedes there may be room for tax reduction. Colbeck, whose district includes eight communities in the southern portion of Downriver, said he likes “the idea of reducing property taxes,” and he also thinks that “promoting charities is a good way to help the poor.”
To that end, he indicated he would support an increase in the limit for charitable tax deductions. Colbeck feels the private sector is more effective in helping the underprivileged than the public sector.
Democratic lawmakers questioned for this colum did not respond, but Rep. Andrew Kandrevas of Southgate last year endorsed a Democratic plan to restore tax credits and deductions to middle-class families and repeal new taxes on retirees.
In a statement on his website, State Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) said “the governor’s incomplete restoration of the Homestead Property Tax Credit pales in comparison to the thousands of dollars in additional taxes he has placed on Michigan families, and his budget continues to rely on taxes on retirement income and the elimination of the child deduction and the reduction of the Earned Income Tax Credit.
“The proposed increased income threshold to qualify for the Homestead Property Tax Credit remains far below what it was before it was slashed by the governor earlier in his term, leaving thousands of middle class families unable to qualify for it and paying higher taxes as a result.”
Democrats have been consistent in their criticism of the governor and the legislature for raising taxes on individuals while cutting them on businesses in 2011.
Colbeck said it is certainly nice to be talking about a $1 billion surplus as opposed to the $1.5 billion deficit that faced lawmakers and Snyder in 2011.
“It’s tough to say what will pass,” Somerville said. It could be a “combination of everything.” He called the situation a “moving puzzle,” but said there should be enough in the surplus to provide significant tax relief, increase funding for roads and schools and set aside a rainy day fund in the range of $750 million.
There’s still time for taxpayers to weigh in. They should email their state representatives and senators.
Monday, February 10, 2014
What's wrong with retirement, part-time work?
The Affordable Care Act will lead to the equivalent
of 2 million fewer jobs by 2024, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget
Office, but that does NOT mean Obamacare is causing more unemployment.
These are people leaving the job market. Why is that
a bad thing?
Many of these are folks who will be retiring early
because with the ACA they can now rely on themselves to get health coverage
instead of being dependent on their employer.
Again, why is this a bad thing?
Yet Rush Limbaugh is leading the charge among
Obamacare critics by saying the law is turning people into “wards of the state.”
“You take away the desire, necessity, to work,
you're effectively dehumanizing people,” Limbaugh said on his radio program.
“You are taking away from many people one of the primary sources of their
confidence, self-identity, reason for being, particularly in men, but in more
and more women now with feminism and so forth making its giant strides.
It's just a tragic thing here that's happening, and it's turning more and more
people into satisfied wards of the state.”
What does he mean? Are Social Security recipients wards of the state? This
sounds a bt like Mitt Romney’s damaging remark about the 47 percent of the
populace who are dependent on government.
Well, we’re all dependent on government in one
fashion or another. It is what it is. The horse is out of the barn. You
couldn’t turn the clock back if you wanted to.
But what’s going on here is very simple.
Previous to the ACA, people were dependent on their
employers for health care, which in most cases they could only get by working
fulltime. Everybody knows people who hold jobs solely because they need health
insurance.
With ACA there are now choices. Many people are able
to get their own health insurance at very low rates, especially if they qualify
for the generous subsidies that are part of the law. As a result, many will opt
to retire early or cut back to part-time status.
Retirements create job openings. The quicker older
people leave the workforce the quicker opportunities will be created for
younger people. Instead of a drag on productivity, energetic young people could stimulate economic output.
ACA foes quickly — and erroneously — seized on the
CBO report as proof that Obamacare is a job killer. People can decide for themselves whether what is going on is
a good or bad thing, but some of us feel that early retirement or cutting back
on our hours is the door to our opportunity at this particular stage of our
lives.
Limbaugh and his ilk can say that taking advantage
of ACA subsidies or drawing Social Security benefits earlier rather than later
makes people “wards of the state,” but the alternative, in some cases, is
working in a virtual sweatshop. Limbaugh apparently thinks it’s a good thing to
be stuck in a job you don’t want.
Money and careers are not the only things in life.
There are other — some of us think finer — values in life: family, travel,
fitness and volunteer activities, for instance.
What do
you think?
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Bipartisan measure could rebuild nation's roads, infrastructure
Taxpayers should encourage their federal
lawmakers to support the Partnership to Build America Act so Michigan — and every other state, for that matter — can
improve its roads.
The measure, officially House Resolution 2084, would create
the American Infrastructure Fund to pay for the rebuilding of our country’s
transportation, energy, communications, water and education infrastructure.
More than that, it would create incentives for companies to
invest at home rather than abroad.
The AIF would be funded by the sale of $50 billion in bonds
that would have a 50-year term,
pay a fixed interest rate of 1 percent, and would not be guaranteed by the U.S.
government, according to a website explaining the program.
U.S. corporations would be incentivized to purchase these
new infrastructure bonds by allowing them to repatriate a certain amount of
their overseas earnings tax free for every $1 they invest in the bonds.
The AIF could leverage the $50 billion of bonds at a 15:1
ratio to provide up to $750 billion in loans or guarantees.
The AIF would provide loans or guarantees to state or local
governments to finance qualified infrastructure projects. The states or local
governments would be required to pay back the loan at a market rate determined
by the AIF, but this is something states would have a hard time doing on their
own. There would be no federal taxpayer obligation.
HR 2084 was introduced last year by U.S. Rep. John Delaney,
a Democrat from Maryland. It is a rare bipartisan measure in Congress, with 50
co-sponsors in the House of Representatives evenly divided between the two
parties.
It was also introduced in the U.S. Senate last month by a
small bipartisan group of senators.
Sadly — incredibly,
actually — none of the sponsors is from Michigan. That’s a shame because
Michigan’s highway needs are plain for all drivers to see everyday.
A report
released last month by TRIP, a national transportation research group, said
Michigan’s bad roads cost the state’s residents
approximately $7.7 billion annually in the form of
additional
vehicle operating costs, lost time and wasted fuel due to
traffic congestion and traffic crashes.
That translates to an individual cost of $1,600 for Detroit
area drivers, where 57 percent of major roadways are in poor or mediocre condition.
Plus, highway conditions are critical to economic
development.
“Increasingly, companies are looking at the quality of a
region’s transportation system when deciding where to relocate or expand,” the
TRIP study said. “Regions with congested or poorly maintained roads may see
businesses relocate to areas with a smoother, more efficient and more modern transportation
system.”
Our federal lawmakers need to hear from citizens. They need
to put Michigan’s interests ahead of any narrow partisan considerations.
CBO underscores need to address national debt
It was just one paragraph in a 182-page report, but it was
arguably the most important.
Predictably, it received virtually no media attention.
The Congressional Budget office’s non-partisan study on
“The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024” said that “the large budget
deficits recorded in recent years have substantially increased federal debt, and the
amount of debt relative to the size of the economy is now very high by
historical standards.
“CBO estimates that federal debt held by the public will
equal 74 percent of GDP at the end of this year and 79 percent in 2024 (the end
of the current 10-year projection period).”
And the consequences? They are potentially dire, according
to CBO.
“Such large and growing federal debt could have serious
negative consequences, including restraining economic growth in the long term,
giving policymakers less flexibility to respond to unexpected challenges, and
eventually increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis (in which investors would
demand high interest rates to buy the government’s debt).”
And yet what CBO had to say on the impact of Obamacare got
most of the attention.
Our government needs to address out $17-trillion-plus national debt while there is still time to avoid potential disaster.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Fight bipartisan plan to tax Medigap
Senior citizens face the fight of their lives over Medicare
and it’s a battle they need to
prepare themselves to wage.
For some time there has been bipartisan support to tax
Medigap policies in order to control Medicare, but now a new study is giving
ammunition to advocates of this approach.
Bipartisanship is a great thing and extolled here at
“Between Extremes.” But not this type of bipartisanship.
Chuck Austin of Oakland County (Mich.), head of the SeniorNews and Advocacy Coalition, called our attention to the study by University of Chicago and University of Texas researchers that claims Medigap policies are
adding 22 percent annually to Medicare costs. They propose a 15 percent tax on Medigap policies to
discourage their use.
Medigap is supplemental private insurance senior citizens purchase
to pick up expenses that Medicare
fails to cover. Medicare only covers 80 percent of most expenses and there is
no out-of-pocket maximum on medical costs that individuals may incur.
Think of it. Without Medigap, senior citizens with serious
illnesses such as older people normally suffer would end up in the poorhouse.
There is no disputing the figures the researchers came up
with. But there is insufficient evidence to show that the costs are not
covering vital health services, which, of course, is the whole purpose of
Medicare.
"They can say nothing at all about whether that
utilization is life-saving cancer care or discretionary back surgery,"
Bruce Vladeck, who ran Medicare under President Clinton, told Kaiser Health News. "Maybe it
would be a good paper in a graduate econometrics course, but it just doesn't
reflect reality."
To be sure, Medicare expenses need to be controlled. But
there are many other ways to do so, and many common-sense policies were advocated
by the President’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform in 2010.
But the idea of a 15 percent tax on Medigap policies is
outrageous. Yet the idea of a tax or surcharge is supported by both President Obama and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, according to KHN.
Senior citizens need to brace themselves to fight to protect their life savings.
Senior citizens need to brace themselves to fight to protect their life savings.
Monday, February 3, 2014
New Republican health-care plan falls short
We have a
guest blogger today. Rich Teets is a retired automotive engineer with an
interest
in health care policy. He is the
chair of the healthcare task force for the Metro Coalition of Congregations, a group of
faith based congregations joining together to advocate for the common good.
By Rich Teets
Republican senators Richard Burr, Tom Coburn and Orrin
Hatch recently
provided a new health plan [1] which they claim is a good alternative to the
Affordable Care Act (ACA).
The new plan is the Patient Choice, Affordability,
Responsibility, and Empowerment Act (CARE). The summary provided by these
leaders is long on Republican trash talk about the ACA, and short on details. But the details provided
suggest that this new plan would leave large holes in the healthcare safety
net.
The first step of CARE is to repeal the ACA. It is replaced
by relatively small vouchers to help low income people buy healthinsurance. The expanded eligibility for Medicaid that is
part of the ACA is replaced by a capped grant to the states
and freedom to experiment.
The ACA requirements for quality standards in health
insurance are eliminated. CARE includes some provisions to deal with pre-existing conditions, but it is unlikely these will
be acceptable to the insurance industry.
There are also suggestions to promote transparency
in pricing medical services and to reduce malpractice
costs, both direct and indirect.
Consider first the subsidies offered to low income people
to help pay premiums. For people less than 200% of the
federal poverty level (FPL) and ages 35-49, the suggested subsidy would be $2,530
for an individual and $6,610 for a family. A good
baseline for the premium cost for decent insurance is given
by the average for employer provided insurance: $5,500 for an individual and
$14,500 for a family.[2] So to buy
decent insurance, a low income individual would need to pay about $3,000 and a family would need to pay about $8,000.The
FPL for an individual is $11,490 and for a family of 2 is $15,510. Clearly, this CARE plan would not allow these
low income people to buy decent insurance. Even at 200% of FPL, people would
not have enough disposable income to pay insurance premiums. In contrast, the
ACA provides subsidies that allow an individual or a family of 2 living in metro Detroit and
making just under 200% of FPL to buy good insurance for $1,000/year (with a
deductible of $900 individual or $1,800 family).[3] These costs would still be challenging to a
low income family, but they are far more reasonable than
the subsidies in the CARE plan.
Since the ACA subsidies are on a sliding scale, people
making lower incomes would pay even less. This properly reflects the fact that people on very low incomes have almost no disposable income and little chance to build up
savings. The CARE plan would repeal the expanded eligibility for
Medicaid, on the grounds that Medicaid is a “broken”
system. Instead, the states would be given more freedom to innovate, and the
growth in federal support for Medicaid would be capped at
CPI+1.
In Michigan, it is expected that 400,000 people will
qualify for the expanded Medicaid. It is not clear that the CARE plan would
cover any of these people. In addition, health care cost inflation has usually
been more than CPI+1. Therefore, over time the capped federal contribution would cover less and
less.
Medicaid is far from ideal. In Michigan, Medicaid payment
rates to doctors are about half the rates for Medicare.[4] Consequently, many doctors will not take
Medicaid. There are also
complaints by doctors that Medicaid red tape is burdensome.
The main way to make Medicaid work better for the people it is supposed to
serve is to increase payment rates to
providers. It seems unlikely this will happen. And the very low payment rates to doctors almost certainly mean that
Medicaid is less costly to the federal government than
Medicaid does have the advantage that the co-pays are very
small (typically $1). Consequently, it is affordable to very low income people. It is hard to see how the CARE plan would
adequately cover people in the 30-100% of FPL range that have been left out of
traditional Medicaid. The ACA
extends full Medicaid to people making less than 138% of
FPL. Unfortunately, about half the states have chosen not to extend Medicaid,
even though the federal payments
would provide a strong net benefit to the state. Low income working people in these states are simply dependent on the
generosity of strangers when it comes to healthcare,
and finding charity care is often a daunting task. This has
real consequences. “Lack of health insurance causes roughly 18,000 unnecessary
deaths every year in the United States”.[5]
The CARE program has two ways to deal with pre-existing conditions. One approach is to use high risk pools for
people with serious and/or chronic illnesses. That has been used in the past,
but in most cases the funding source was not adequate. Therefore, people who had to take advantage of these high
risk pools faced very high costs. An unfortunate aspect of this approach is that
people that are unlucky enough to have a serious illness must also incur very high costs.
Many people would say that insurance should spread those
costs across the whole population. Some people believe that high-risk pools are a relatively low cost way to help
people with pre-existing conditions. But, as discussed below, these people
require a substantial fraction of the medical spending in the U.S.
The second way that CARE addresses pre-existing conditions
is to prohibit underwriting for people who have insurance and want to buy some
other insurance. This would mean that people who maintain insurance could never
be discriminated against because of pre-existing conditions. This has two serious problems. First, it ignores the common problem that when
people lose their job, they often do not have enough savings to continue to pay for insurance. Second, it is unlikely
that insurance companies could live with this rule. Since CARE puts no
requirements for quality on insurance policies, healthy people would tend to buy low cost, low quality poli
cies. Then, if they develop a serious illness, they could
freely buy better insurance.
We have seen that the CARE program fails to provide a good safety net for low income people who need health
insurance. It also fails to solve the problem of pre-existing conditions. The authors of the CARE program also
make a number of statements that seem to show a lack of understanding of
the reality of health insurance in America. For example,
they state that surveys show that 85-90% of Americans liked their insurance except for the cost.[6] But 50 million
Americans don’t have health insurance. This is about 15%.
It is hard to believe that every American who has insurance likes it. Many of us know people who complain
that their insurance doesn’t cover things they think it should. In addition to
the 50 million uninsured, there are about
30 million who are underinsured.[7] Do all these people
like
their insurance?
The CARE authors repeat a lot of Republican dogma about the
ACA. Clearly the ACA can be improved and the rollout of the website was
terrible. But as a Navigator, I have helped many people sign up for insurance,
and many of them simply could not have afforded insurance before. The website
is now working well enough that many people can complete the application
without problems.
The ACA also has several features that Republicans
usually endorse. In metro Detroit, there are more than 10 private insurance companies competing. The insurance generally has high
deductibles, so consumers have “skin in the game” and are likely to be
thoughtful about the cost of medical care and whether that care is necessary. Republicans usually say
that this is the key to driving down health costs. In addition, the insurance
companies are motivated to negotiate low
rates with the providers in their network, because this is
the main way they can keep their premiums low (and thus compete for more
customers).
The CARE authors repeatedly claim that the ACA is driving up insurance costs. This requires careful analysis. First,
the news recently has been full of reports that the
recent increase in healthcare costs has been surprisingly
small.[8]. Three common explanations are: the ending of patents on a number of
expensive drugs, lingering effects of the recession, and the ACA. Second, the
costs of ACA insurance are comparable to the costs of employer provided insurance. For example, in
metro Detroit a 45 year old can by a Blue Cross Premier Silver plan with $1,400
deductible for $4,200/year. This is comparable to the premium cost for employer provided
insurance with a similar deductible. Both of these facts contradict the
Republican dogma that the ACA is causing a spike in health insurance rates.
There are several ways that the ACA may significantly
increase the rates paid by some people who have been in the individual market.
First, the ACA has quality standards that some older plans did not meet. In
some cases, this is because the older plans had big holes in their coverage. Often people did not
discover these holes until it was too late, and this accounts for a significant number
of bankruptcies. Some people believe that it is wrong for the ACA to require maternity
coverage, pediatric coverage, and coverage for mental illness and substance
abuse. If I don’t have kids, don’t intend to have kids, and have no mental or substance abuse issues,
why should I pay for insurance for these conditions? But many people believe that
insurance should cover broad risk pools.
Every time one segments the risk pool, one creates winners
and losers. A man will never have a baby, but a woman will never have prostate
cancer. A lot of these costs tend to average out. And if people are allowed to buy
insurance that is tailored to their needs, what happens to people with pre-existing conditions? They will have to pay very high costs, because they are bearing the full cost of the risk associated with their conditions. The point of insurance is to spread the risk
broadly, so that the unlucky people who have health problems don’t also have to bear a
disproportionate financial burden.
There is another way that the ACA can raise some people’s
premiums, and the
explanation is somewhat complex. There are many anecdotes
of people with decent
insurance whose premiums have gone up significantly under
the ACA. To understand this, we must first understand the distribution of
health spending.[9] In any population,
there will be many people who have relatively low medical
spending – they are very
healthy. There will be some who have high spending because
they have chronic or acute
illness or serious injuries. If we rank the whole U.S.
population by medical spending (not including health insurance premiums) we
find that half the population is quite healthy,
and only accounts for 3% of the spending, less than $850
per person. On the other
extreme, 20% of the population accounts for 80% of the
spending. So in the past, the key
way for an insurance company to compete in the individual
market was to sell to healthy
underwriting and emphasis on pre-existing conditions. Another way for insurance companies to reduce costs was to
cap annual and lifetime spending on any one person. 22% of the total
medical spending in this country is consumed by the sickest 1% of the population, with annual
costs exceeding $52,000 per person. So capping the payments could significantly reduce
a
company’s cost, but with serious consequences for the
unlucky 1%.
Thus, people who had a pre-ACA insurance policy that cost
much less than $5,000
for an individual or $15000 for a family were buying “healthy people’s insurance”. This
insurance was not sold to people who had pre-existing
conditions. People who believe
this is a good system are saying there should be two risk
pools – one for healthy people
and one for unhealthy people. [10] The healthy people will
pay relatively low premiums.
The unhealthy people will not be able to afford insurance, unless the government
provides large subsidies. And since the least healthy 20%
cover 80% of the medical
spending, it will take very large government subsidies to
cover their costs. Many people
believe that insurance pools should be broad, so everyone
shares the cost and the risk.
The ACA does this.
There is one other aspect of the pre-ACA insurance
environment that deserves
consideration. Many people think that insurance companies
could cancel policies for
people who became sick. That could happen if there was a lifetime maximum for
payments or if the company was able to claim the consumer
had an undisclosed pre-
existing condition. But federal law forbids indiscriminate
canceling of policies.
However, the natural functioning of the market may have
gradually eliminated unhealthy
people from the market. Many consumers change insurance
every few years. This is the
main reason why most current plans were not grandfathered
from 2010 – they did not
exist in 2010.[11]
Insurance companies have an incentive to offer new plans at
low cost in order to attract the healthy consumers. The high cost of
insurance motivates consumers to look for lower cost plans. Thus, healthy consumers were likely to move into new, relatively low cost insurance. The unhealthy
people were prevented from buying the new plans, so they were stuck in their old plan,
in a risk pool that became increasingly unhealthy. This caused the rates for the whole
pool to go up rapidly, and
eventually many of the people in the unhealthy risk pool
were no longer able to afford
insurance. In addition, some people enter the individual
market when they lose a job.
Again, only the healthy people in this pool are able to buy insurance in the low cost plans
on the individual market.
Thus, much of the increase in cost for individual insurance
related to the ACA is
due to a transition away from insurance that was either low in quality or limited to
healthy people. We have seen that in metro Detroit, the
unsubsidized cost for ACA
insurance is about the same as for a comparable policy in the employer-provided
insurance market. Employer-provided insurance does not
discriminate between healthy
and unhealthy people. Thus, it does not have the
distortions that were common in the
pre-ACA individual market.
The CARE plan has some discussion of the relative costs for
young vs. old
consumers. In the ACA, premiums can only vary by a factor
of 3 based on age from age
have even encouraged young people not to sign up for
insurance, in order to protest this
inequity. Continuing this argument, the CARE plan suggests a factor of 5 range in
premium vs. age would be more appropriate. Reference [12] shows that the medical
costs for 65 years olds are more than 3 times the costs for 21 years old. Given that young
people may earn much less than older people, one might
think the ACA should have a
much bigger factor than 3 in age-adjusted premium costs.
However, there are other
important considerations.
First, the ACA has good tax credits to help low income people pay insurance premiums and to reduce their deductible and
out-of-pocket maximum. Thus, 20 year olds with modest income will pay much less
than 1/3 of the premium cost compared to an older person with a high income. [13]
Because the insurance will likely be affordable for many young people, it seems unethical to
encourage them not to buy insurance. Also, even the factor of 3 causes premiums for
people in their 60s to be relatively high. For example, in metro Detroit, a 63 year old would pay $8616 for a Blue
Cross Premier Silver plan with a $1400 deductible (without
tax credits). An individual
earning $46,000 per year makes too much for a premium tax
credit. It will be difficult
for such an individual to afford $8616 per year. It doesn’t
seem wise to increase this cost
by going to a factor of 5x for age rating.
The CARE plan also includes some ideas on increasing
transparency in medical
costs. And it suggests some ways to improve malpractice issues. Both of these seem
worth pursuing.
In conclusion, the CARE plan would be interesting if it is a starting point for an
honest discussion on ways to improve health care in the
U.S. It will almost certainly be
necessary to modify the ACA as we learn more about specific issues. For example, the
rule for affordability of employer-provided family
insurance needs changing the “family
glitch”[14]). But the CARE plan seems to be a significant
step backward from the ACA
in terms of proposals to cover low income people.
Republicans often complain about the transfer of wealth from rich to poor that is intrinsic
to the tax credits that make ACA insurance affordable. But health care costs in the U.S. are
clearly too high for low income people to afford without substantial help. If one believes
that low income people should have health insurance, then it seems necessary for upper
middle class and wealthy people to help pay the cost.
References
1. The Patient Choice, Affordability, Responsibility,
and Empowerment Act
http://www.hatch.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/bf0c9823-29c7-4078
-b8af-aa9a12213eca/The%20Patient%20CARE%20Act%20-%20LEGISLATIVE%20PROPOSAL.pdf
2. U of M Center for Healthcare Research and Transform
ation: premium costs in Michigan for 2012
(report dated Sept. 2013)
3. Premiums and other insurance costs under the ACA can
be determined by using the “See plans before I apply” button on healthcare.gov.
4. Medicaid-to-Medicare Fee Index (Kaiser Family
Foundation) http://kff.org/medicaid/state-
indicator/medicaid-to-medicare-fee-index/#notes
5. “Insuring America's Health: Principles and
Recommendations”, report of the Institute of Medicine, Jan. 13, 2004. This is
part of the National Academies, the top medical research people in the U.S.
6. The Patient Choice, Affordability, Responsibility, and Empowerment Act – Frequently Asked Questions
http://www.hatch.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/e9518504-ee02-494f-84e
1-1f63d0b1127f/The%20Patient%20CARE%20Act%20-%20FAQs.pdf
7. Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health
System Performance, 2011. chart 49
http://www.commonwealthfund.org/~/media/Files/Publications
/Fund%20Report/2011/Oct/PDF_National_Scorecard_Chartpack_2011_FINAL_101311.pdf
8. For example: Medical-Price Inflation Is at Slowest Pace in 50 Years (Wall Street Journal 9/17/13)
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323342404579081312680485476
9. Health Care Costs, A Primer (Kaiser Family Foundation, May 2012)
http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/7670-03
.pdf
10. “ObamaCare's Plans Are Worse”, Wall Street Journal
editorial (11/29/13)
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303460004579192081764514664
The editorial claims that average costs for a pre-ACA individual policy
was $2280 per year. The authors argue that the ACA insurance costs much more, because it is too good (first class). But they don’t mention that average employer-provided insurance costs about $5500 per year (for
the employer and employee shares of the
premium). (see ref. [2]). Why should the pre-ACA individual policy be so much cheaper? Either because
it is much lower in quality (has major coverage gaps) or, more likely, because it is only sold to healthy
people. The employer-provided insurance cannot discriminate between healthy and unhealthy employees;
it must cover the whole risk pool.
11.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-semro/grandfathered-plans-the-a_b_4283333.html#
12. “The Lifetime Distribution of Health Care Costs”, Berhanu Alemayehu and Kenneth E Warner, Health
Serv Res. 2004 June; 39(3): 627–642.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
pmc/articles/PMC1361028/
13. http://www.rwjf.org/content/dam/farm/reports/issue_brief
s/2013/rwjf404637/subassets/rwjf404637_1
Implications of Limited Age Rating Bands Under the Affordable
Care Act
14. Consumer Reports – the “family glitch” http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/10/replacing-
employer-coverage-with-marketplace-health-plan/index.htm
Charter schools: A Michigan success story
If there were no Trillium Academy, fewer students in the
Taylor area would have the opportunity for instruction in the performing arts.
It is one of the school’s specialties. It also illustrates
the value of Michigan’s charter
school movement, now marking its 20th anniversary.
People forming charter schools can organize themselves
around certain key components that they want in a school. That is the
underlining principle for the concept: giving parents and students choices.
The state’s first nine charter schools opened in the fall
of 1994.
Today, there are now 298 charter schools in the state
educating more than 140,000 students — about 9 percent of the state’s
school-age population.
Charter schools have particularly flourished in urban
areas.
More than half the public school students in Detroit are
now enrolled in charter schools, according to a recent report from the National Alliance for Public
Charter Schools.
That keeps
Detroit second nationally among all cities, trailing only New Orleans, where 79
percent of students attend charter schools. Of the 100,255 public school
students in Detroit, 51,083 were enrolled in charter schools, compared to
49,172 in traditional public schools.
It is hard to view charter schools as anything but a
Godsend for the students and parents who make use of them. Their distinctives
are alluring.
At Trillium, for instance, each student has his or her own educational
plan, according to Superintendent Angela Romanowski. This approach has made the
institution a “reward school” and it is in the top 5 percent in Michigan for
its rate of student improvement.
Because it serves grades K-12, it is philosophically a
one-room school house. Parents can send all of their children to the school.
Romanowski, who is in her 11th year at Trillium
and originally worked in Monroe County’s Airport Community District as a Title
1 coordinator, said the family component is a special feature of the school.
Parents, students and faculty members are all surveyed for input and teamwork
is stressed.
Trillium has 695 students.
“It is hard to be much smaller if you are a high school,”
Romanowski said.
Varsity basketball, softball, cross country and volleyball
are offered, and the school partners with Gabriel Richard in Riverview for
varsity football.
Three types of charter schools are allowed under Michigan
law: 1) urban high school academies that can only be authorized by the state’s
public universities; 2) schools of excellence that can replicate
high-performing schools, function as a cyber school or base themselves on
criteria that define superior academic performance; 3) strict discipline
academies for the purposes of serving suspended, expelled or incarcerated young
people.
The Michigan legislature last year lifted the cap on the
number of charter schools that can exist in the state.
“We are still implementing choice,” said Dan Quisinberry,
who has been president of the Michigan Association of Public School Academies
(charterschools.org) since 1997.
Quisinberry said that while parents have access to testing
data so they can rate a school’s achievement level, “it ought to be more
understandable.” He is encouraged by a proposed A to F school accountability
proposal now before the Michigan legislature.
Attaining equitable funding for charter schools also has
been “difficult,” Quisinberry said, since there is still a “significant
difference” between state funding for charters and conventional public schools.
Student
performance of charter schools has been debated, but Quisinberry has pointed out
that noted that research by Stanford University’s CREDO Institute, released last
year, shows that the average charter school student in Michigan gains an
additional two months of learning every year in reading and math. In Detroit,
the study showed, it’s an additional three months of learning every year.
To be sure, the
movement has its critics, who today are focusing on what they call the undue
influence of corporate interests in the movement. But as Quisinberry said
recently, “The research shows that charter schools are fulfilling the promise
that increased innovation and accountability will lead to greater achievement
… That’s why so many parents are
choosing charter schools. You can’t fool parents. They don’t care who runs the
school, but they know when their child is in the right school.”
Clearly, charter
schools are here to stay.
Saturday, February 1, 2014
Create more jobs, then raise minimum wage
Notice how the Democrats
are always talking about extending unemployment benefits and, lately, raising
the minimum wage.
For their own sakes, not
to mention the nation’s, they need to tap into the depth of experience in their
policymaking think tanks and recognize the problems we face are more complex,
demanding a broader approach.
The public is ahead of
them on this one. The reliable Rasmussen poll says the nation supports the
minimum wage but opposes more unemployment benefits.
While raising the minimum
wage looks appealing, the timing might be off. Even conservative economist
Arthur Laffer suggests this might have merit, but only at the state level,
where conditions vary from place to place. To that end, a movement has been launched to raise the minimum wage in Michigan.
It should be kept in mind
that we have several problems: income growth is dismal; the job recovery is the
worst in modern history; employers are dealing with an array of problems right
now, not the least of which is implementation next year of the Affordable Care
Act.
Businesses are already
behind the curve in creating jobs. Why throw another requirement at them right
now?
The Republicans are
correct in their focus on job creation. We’d get further if the two parties
would work together on this one. They both have good ideas if they put them
forth, eschewing the sound bites in the process.
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